Minnesota Farmers Union

(June 12, 2009) - In this series of columns we examine the impact of the rapid run-up and subsequent decline of crop prices on various groups, including crop farmers; livestock, dairy and poultry producers; importing countries; and consumers and whether or not a properly managed grain reserve program could have mitigated the problems faced by each of these groups. In this column we look at the ethanol industry as an important cause and casualty of the price bubble.

To some extent the increased use of corn in the production of ethanol can be attributed to changes in agricultural policy in 1996 and the growing scientific consensus on the role of human activity on global warming. The 1996 Farm Bill effectively eliminated the floor on crop prices and, when the universally anticipated structural increases in corn exports did not materialize, allowed grain prices to fall well below the cost of production.

The explanation for the low prices was "over production" even though the year-ending stock-to-use ratio for the years beginning with 1998 was well below historic levels. With significant fixed costs, crop farmers continued to plant their fields to minimize their losses, hoping that a random crop failure somewhere would lift prices to profitable levels.